1) Butler, 2002

First conceived by Joe Lunardi when he was studying communications at St. Joseph’s in the early ’80s, Bracketology has since become a cornerstone of college sports analysis. Refined over the years, Lunardi’s brain child which uses various metrics to prognosticate the NCAA Tournament entrants throughout the season was first posted to the ESPN website in 2002, when it reportedly received a quarter-million hits within two hours. The first team to be considered “in” by Lunardi but snubbed by the actual tournament selection committee was Butler in 2002. Led by new coach Todd Lickliter, the Bulldogs were looking to repeat or build on a second round appearance in the 2001 tournament and had one of the best regular seasons in program history, finishing 26-6 and even making a brief appearance in the AP top 25. But they were upset in the quarterfinals of the Horizon Conference Tournament by Wisconsin-Green Bay and overlooked for one of the final NCAA Tournament at-large bids in favor of Tulsa and Missouri (who, to be fair, then embarked on a Cinderella run to the Elite Eight as a #12 seed). The Bulldogs did nab an at-large bid from the bubble in 2003 and eventually became a mid-major darling, making back-to-back Final Four appearances in 2010 and 2011.

2) Texas Tech, 2003

A stressful situation for the selection committee but a thrilling one for Lunardi and fans is when a conference tournament game on Selection Sunday directly determines the fate of an at-large hopeful. This happened in 2003, when Ohio State had made a surprise run through the Big 10 Tournament to set up a showdown in the final with Illinois. The Buckeyes were not in at-large consideration for the NCAA Tournament after a disappointing season but could still earn an automatic spot if they could pull off one more upset against Deron Williams and the Illini. Watching most closely were Texas Tech, whom Lunardi had listed as his “last team in” and Auburn, whom he had labelled as his “first team out.” When Illinois eliminated Ohio State with a 72-59 victory, it was Auburn getting the surprise bid from the selection committee. This was a bitter pill for the Red Raiders, who had been ranked as high as #23 in the AP poll during their second season under Bobby Knight but were done in by losing their final three regular season games and finishing 6-10 in the Big 12 standings. Though the Bracketology formula saw Auburn as the lesser choice, the Tigers ended up justifying their inclusion, upsetting Lunardi’s alma mater, St. Joseph’s and then Wake Forest to reach the Sweet 16 as a #10 seed.

3) Utah State, 2004

Bracketology bubble teams have traditionally skewed heavier towards the major conferences, but 2004 was a notable exception. Utah State, then a member of the Big West, was one of several mid-majors that populated the bubble heading into the final days of the ’03-’04 season. It had been a banner year for the Aggies program, winning 21 of their last 22 games to finish in the AP top 25 for the first time in 24 years. They were heavy favorites in the Big West Tournament, having lost just one conference game all season, but were stunned in the semifinals by Cal State Northridge, a team they had beaten by 22 points on the road just a month earlier. Lunardi still had them as a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament but the selection committee felt otherwise, leaving Utah State as the first school in the modern tournament era to finish ranked in the AP poll but not receive an NCAA Tournament bid. Lunardi called it the biggest snub he’d ever seen, compounded by one of the last bids going to BYU, another mid-major team that the Aggies had defeated earlier in the season. Surprise at-large appearances also went to mid-majors UTEP, Air Force, and Richmond. Utah State would bounce back nicely from that disappointment, making NCAA Tournament appearances in five of the next seven seasons, including in 2010 as an at-large.

4) Maryland, 2006
5) Missouri State, 2006 

Maryland seemed to be announcing itself as a new ACC powerhouse with a Final Four appearance in 2001 and a national title in 2002, but steadily slid over the next few seasons and found themselves square on the bubble in ’05-’06. Joining them was Missouri State, a Missouri Valley Conference member looking to make its first NCAA Tournament appearance in six years. Both teams suffered tough losses in their respective conference tournament quarterfinals, but the Terps had a seemingly impressive resume, having been ranked as high as #14 in the AP poll during the season and managing an 8-8 record in a difficult ACC slate, while the Bears had a major edge in one important category: RPI. Short for Rating Percentage Index, the RPI ranked teams based on a formula that takes into account not just their opponents’ winning percentages, but also their opponent’s opponent’s winning percentages. Though the selection committee officially had been using it since the early ’80s, they had made a point that the RPI would gain new prominence in decision making starting in 2006. Missouri State finished the ’05-’06 season ranked #21 in RPI while Maryland was #49 but both teams were left off the at-large bid list in favor of Air Force, who was way down the list in the RPI rankings. When asked to justify this decision, the committee chairman justified Air Force’s inclusion because they were “a unique team to beat.” So much for sticking to the data. The Falcons proved to be an easy out anyway, losing by nine points in the first round to Illinois. Maryland managed to return to the NCAA Tournament in 2007 but Missouri State has been subsequently shut out in the 14 years and counting since this snub.

6) Syracuse, 2007

Jim Boeheim’s resume at Syracuse includes 33 NCAA Tournament appearances, five trips to the Final Four, and one national championship, but his reaction to the Orange missing the 2007 NCAA Tournament is arguably one of his most memorable career moments. Syracuse started the ’06-’07 season with seven straight wins and a #14 ranking in the AP poll but struggled from there, losing non-conference home games to Drexel and Wichita State, finishing 10-6 in an off year for the Big East, and losing to Notre Dame in the conference tournament quarterfinals. The team’s fans, players, coaches, and Lunardi were all confident Syracuse would still be dancing in March but they were instead snubbed in favor of Arkansas. Despite already being one of the most decorated coaches in college basketball history, Boeheim reacted as if his job was on the line due to this snub, voicing his displeasure with the selection committee on any media outlet that would have him, from CBS during the selection show special to local radio to ESPN’s “Pardon the Interruption.” Most analysts pointed to Syracuse’s undoing as their early season loss to Drexel, who coincidentally was also considered an at-large snub that year. After all the hemming and hawing, Boeheim led Syracuse into the NIT, where the Orange faithful broke the tournament’s attendance record by packing the Carrier Dome for the first two rounds, cheering on their team while also using the occasion to voice their displeasure with the selection committee through chants and signs.

7) Illinois, 2010

One of the cruel truths of college basketball is that after playing a full season with various ups and downs, your fate in the NCAA Tournament could easily come down to just one do-or-die game in your conference tournament. Illinois entered the 2010 Big 10 Tournament with a less-than-stellar 18-13 record but a solid case for NCAA Tournament inclusion despite a relatively easy schedule. Perhaps the biggest knock on them was a late February home loss to Minnesota, a conference rival that was also on the bubble. The Illini managed to upset Wisconsin in the Big 10 quarterfinals to boost their resume but unfortunately Minnesota also pulled off a quarterfinal stunner over Michigan State. This left Illinois in a likely must-win situation in the semifinals against Ohio State, who was the #5 team in the country at the time. They put up a strong fight, taking the Buckeyes to double overtime before losing, 88-81. Insult was added to injury when they watched helplessly as Minnesota won their semifinal, pulling off another upset over Purdue. The Gophers were blown out by Ohio State in the Big 10 championship but still secured an at-large bid while Illinois was left out. Due to the Big 10 being top heavy and their non-conference schedule being light, Illinois was likely done in by their weak RPI score, which ranked them at #74.

8) Virginia Tech, 2011
9) Colorado, 2011 

Two traditional football schools that had limited success in their basketball program history, Virginia Tech and Colorado were further kindred spirits when they were arguably the last two teams left out of the 2011 NCAA Tournament. It marked the fourth consecutive season that the Hokies had started Selection Sunday as a bubble team and ended it reluctantly accepting an NIT invitation (it would also become the fourth straight season they entered the NIT as a #1 or #2 seed but didn’t win their region). This was such old hat by this point for Virginia Tech that coach Seth Greenberg was repeating himself by accusing the selection committee of having an “agenda” against his squad. But an NCAA Tournament snub was new to Colorado in 2011. The program had just two NCAA Tournament appearances in the prior 40 years but set a school record with 21 wins in ’10-’11 and made it to the tournament semifinals in their final season in the Big 12. It seemingly wasn’t enough though, as Colorado and Virginia Tech were left in the cold in favor of VCU, who would eventually make a surprise run to the the Final Four as a #11 seed. One year later, Greenberg was fired after Virginia Tech finished below .500, but Colorado, won the tournament in their new conference, the Pac-12, and broke their tournament appearance drought. 

10) Drexel, 2012
11) Southern Miss, 2013
12) Colorado State, 2015
13) Monmouth, 2016

Even after VCU from the Colonial Athletic Conference and Butler from the Horizon made thrilling surprise runs to the 2011 Final Four, the NCAA Selection Committee still seemed to only increase its bias against mid-major teams going forward. The first major victim in 2012 was Drexel, winners of 27 games during the ’11-’12 season, including 19 straight, until losing to VCU in the CAA Tournament finals. Like many of his peers on this list, coach Bruiser Flint was brutal in his assessment of the committee’s decision, accusing the group of spending too much time looking at numbers and not enough time watching basketball. The Dragons have not managed to make the tournament since, and are currently in a 23 year drought. One year later, Southern Miss from Conference USA had the distinction of becoming the highest-rated team in RPI in history to miss the NCAA Tournament. After playing in the 2012 tournament as a #9 seed, the Eagles had 25 wins a C-USA regular season title in ’12-’13, but lost in overtime in the conference championship to Memphis and were left out of the big dance despite their RPI rank of 31. The committee made an even stronger indictment of RPI in 2015 by leaving out Colorado State. Coach Larry Eustachy and the Rams had goosed the system that year, scheduling early non-conference games that they knew would boost their RPI rating and were so confident in their at-large chances that they kept injured star player J.J. Avila out of the lineup for the Mountain West Tournament, even though he was healthy enough to come back and play. But the committee made an example of Colorado State, rendering them the first team to ever miss the tournament after finishing in the top 30 in RPI (they were 29th). Mid-majors took the lesson to heart, but Monmouth in 2016 was the first proof that there wasn’t much these teams could do to still impress the committee. The Hawks scheduled a tough non-conference schedule for the ’15-’16 season, but early season wins over Georgetown, UCLA, and USC were less impressive by March when those traditional powerhouses all had down seasons. After getting stunned by Iona in the MAAC Tournament final, Monmouth found themselves settling for the NIT despite amassing a school record 27 wins.